Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
